US Stock Market Defies Belief

How can the US stock market be back at 9000+?

How can the earnings of most major corporations be in the toilet, yet the stock market has continued to creep back up towards the point at which they were all making record profits (as reflected in the indexes)? How can the US finance industry, which makes up a large part of the US market, be in such dire straits yet the market rallies? It defies belief of course unless investors are forgetting the past, (assuming ~7000 was the bottom of the DOW) and pricing shares for the future upside only.

I note the DOW is moving within a small band of larger ups and small downs. I think there is a lot of market manipulation going on by the PPT. See here how insiders are selling their shares at a furious pace while this dead cat bounce is happening.

The US dollar is a basket case and its decline has started again as the printing presses start cranking and the “flight to safety” feeling from the intitial stages of the GFC dissipates.

I’m waiting for the correction. It got to be coming soon.

All Blacks Not Getting into the Power Band

I liken the All Blacks on Saturday night, and in the Wallybee game, as being like a high powered 500CC GP motorbike going in and out of its power band. Sometimes the All Blacks look like they can destroy anything for periods of up to 20 minutes, then they seem to cough and splutter (make errors) and slow down to a more leisurely pace.

The All Blacks did not deserve to win against the Yarpies but they are also not that far off the Yarpies by any means. The game was error filled although to be fair the penalties helped to prevent tries in the first half which would have made the score a lot harder to reign in during the second half. Ruan Peinar’s dodgy boot definitely helped but would the All Blacks have continued to give away penalties if his boot was on target – I doubt it.

Several people I spoke to late last week agreed with the All Black selection except for Leonard replacing Cowan, especially when Cowan had such a good game against the Wallybees. I couldn’t understand it either. I noted one commentator saying it was to keep Leonard in the side and keen. If that is the coaching staff’s motivation then they have learnt absolutely nothing from the failure of strength and reconditioning. However, I really hope that Henry’s actual strategy was to rest him for this Durban test because Henry probably thought “we only need to win one away” so saving Cowan fit for the more winnable one in Durban may end up being a good move. We shall see.

The mess at the end with Piri Weepu farting about behind the ruck so that the Yarpies could re-organise their defensive line made me wonder which South African bookie got to him. Then Eaton running ahead of the pass (or was it Weepu poor passing) just makes you wonder if it is worth putting green subs on with 5 minutes to go in a tight and winnable test match.

What do you say about Tialata doing a drop kick? What that heck was inside his head when he made that decision? Fat blokes do not do drop kicks.

The Boks played pretty well and put a lot of pressure on the All Blacks in the first half which produced a lot of penalties but I thought we defended well and responded to a massive 40 minutes.

We have to get our lineout sorted. Why do we not contest the lineout? I presume this is so that we can be ready to defend the maul drive but clearly we are not able to do that. Perhaps an alternative is to disrupt Matfield receiving the ball in the hope that it may also disrupt the formation of the maul by causing Matfield to have to flick it to the half back.

The All Blacks need to practice swinging the maul around and attacking the tail. Some form of releasing the opposing pressure at the same time as driving the front of the maul towards the touchline which should swing the tail out forcing the ball carrier to have to chase to keep with his mauling buddies may allows our scavengers to pick off the tail. We have to do something to stop their effective mauls. And I do not think Ross pulled down that maul – he was clearly tripped and fell under their feet :-)

All in all not that great of a game to watch if you are not a Yarpie. The All Blacks are just a slight adjustment of the mixture away from achieving a full throttle performance in the power band for 80 minutes. But I have been saying that for a while I guess!

These are the Real Bad Guys in the Global Financial Crises

Watch this video: Government by Goldman Sachs

Cognitive Dissonance

Cognitive dissonance is “an uncomfortable feeling caused by holding two contradictory ideas simultaneously”. We avoid the anxiety caused by dissonance using rationalisation.

Cell Phones Do Not Crash Planes

Yesterday I flew home from Melbourne and was sitting next to a businessman of around 50 years of age. I was listening to my iPhone/iPod and enjoying some sounds when the flight attendant asked me to turn it off because we were landing “and all electronic gadgets need to be turned off because they may interfere with the planes sensitive equipment.” Now I know this to be a load of rot, not only because I know a 767 engineer who told me so, but because I have tested this theory many times by turning on my phone during landings to send and receive text messages. I know for a fact that mobile phones operate sporadically at about 2000-3000 feet and pretty much work perfectly at less than 1000 feet. At no time has the plane spontaneously exploded and at no time have we had to ditch into Botany Bay because I had my iPhone on.

However, the gentlemen next to me was quite beside himself and upset that I was “putting [his] life in danger” with a few choice swear words intermingled for effect. He threatened to tattle tale on me to the flight attendant which amused me, and of course I encouraged him to do so. This poor man honestly believed that my iPhone was going to crash the plane yet how many times in any given day do people leave their phones on (because they forget) or leave their phone in their luggage etc without any catastrophes? I even had it in Flight Mode for goodness sakes. His face was contorted with the pain of cognitive dissonance when I explained the lack of actual evidence that the problem is real.

The Swine Flu Will Not Kill You

Ah yes this is one of my favourites! People are experiencing cognitive dissonance here too. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has declared it is a PANDEMIC. Everyone I speak to about swine flu agrees that it appears to be hype. Many know that the Tamiflu stock pile was about to pass its use by date and this conveniently meant a new batch would be ordered by a compliant government. Even less know that Tamiflu is NOT a vaccine but rather a drug you take to minimise the symptoms. But even normally pragmatic people listen to the hype and follow the government’s orders even when they know it's tripe! They have to because if they don’t go along with it they will experience cognitive dissonance - it will raise a whole lot of questions about our institutions, the media, WHO and their integrity – very uncomfortable indeed.

The WHO has raised the “threat level” to 6 – the highest. Why? Why level 6 when it’s a pretty normal flu seasons with a pretty normal number of deaths (actually a bit lower than normal)? The media focuses on what level 6 is:

Phase 6: Pandemic phase. Community level outbreaks in at least two countries in different WHO regions, on top of level 5. A global pandemic is now under way, and probably has been for some time already.

But let’s have a look at what Level 6 allows them to do:

· Use experimental vaccines on humans (awesome if you are a pharmaceutical company)

· Shortened duration test programs (awesome if you are a pharmaceutical company)

· Smaller scope test programs (awesome if you are a pharmaceutical company)

· Forced vaccinations (awesome if you are a pharmaceutical company)

· Lock people up if they don’t take their shots

Level 6 should only be used in real pandemics. This ain’t one.

Global Warming aka Climate Change is a Hoax

My other equal -favourite topic! Here is perhaps the biggest and most pervasive hoax of all time which causes some of the smartest people I know to do a lot of mental gymnastics to rationalise what they believe – that Global Warming is real, with the facts - sunspots have stopped which is causing the world to cool, sea levels are dropping and the ice on the poles is bigger than it has been for a long time and CO2 was four times higher during the medieval warm period and life was just dandy then. But wait! We’ve just had Al Gore in Australia telling us that CO2 – plant food – is going to kill us all if we don’t cap-and-trade CO2 (using his carbon exchange of course).

Look, they had to pick CO2. Any other gas and they would not have been able to tax the buggery out of us. For example, a few years ago CFC’s were destroying the ozone layer. They declared them a danger and in about 10 years we mostly got rid of CFC use. Well done, end of problem, thank you very much, carry on. But, if the goal is really about taxing and population control (as against protecting the planet from a “global warming catastrophe”), then you need to select a gas that is an absolute necessity for life, that way their tax revenue and ability to control is maintained over time. …CO2, we exhale the stuff….perfect.

The Wallabies Aren’t That Good

Perhaps the most serious of all cases of cognitive dissonance at work is in your average Wallybee supporter. This specimen has been listening to the hype on TV and reading the media and jizzing in their pants about “Aussie Robbie Deans’” new team. James O’Conner, Stirling Mortlock, Berrick Barnes…..oh they hype….Australians are the world’s best at hyping themselves up and, up until last Saturday, they believed it.

I watched a number of their faces last week and honestly felt sorry for the pain they were feeling (for several nanoseconds at least) when their belief did not match the reality of what they were seeing. You see their belief was that this was a match they would win and should have won especially given that “the All Blacks are so bad”. To be so resoundingly beaten by a more committed and better team on the day was hard to stomach.

Immediately after the loss they set about rationalising it with a huge serve for the referee. One of the other comments I heard was “both teams scored one try each” as if that somehow meant the match was a draw. The papers splashed similarly titled nonsense about referees and “we woz robbed”. Basically they believed their own hype and got a dust up in the process.

I enjoyed the match immensely of course albeit surrounded by Wallybee supporters. You see Mel and I and Mel’s mother and friend had been skiing on Saturday at Perisher Blue. It was a magic day on the snow with good cover and sunshine. I didn’t want to leave but by 3pm I was starting to twitch with concern about being settled in a suitable environment for the season opener. We bailed from Perisher at 3:10pm and started the drive home. By the time we got to Jindabyne a fiery debate had broken out in the Land Cruiser about whether to risk it and drive to Canberra (where we were staying) or stop in Cooma to be sure. Eventually, I had to make an executive decision and erred on the side of caution so we stopped in Cooma at an old pub and got settled in for the game. I surveyed the scene with my All Black jersey proudly on display but could not find any kindred spirits. Plenty of Wallybee supporters were around and as the game got closer more of them came out from their hidey holes.

Predictably the All Blacks came out firing and the Wallybees certainly came for a game too. I liked the initial rucks and the intensity. Some early turnovers had that Richie feeling about them; I was starting to feel confident. They got out to a bit of a lead but nothing too worrying. Then Berrick Barnes bombed a bottler, the bozo. Later I was told that “if he’d passed” they would have won the game. Now how any Wallybee supporter can maintain that if they scored an extra 5 points at the 30 minute mark that, somehow, the game would have stayed the same for the next 50 minutes is beyond me, but I digress.

We basically smashed them up front and kept the possession. The kicking was pretty good which kept the Wallybees out of our half. Towards the end it was turnover-at-will time. Only after we scored our try did a shout of joy come up from the crowd and I was able to ID the only other AB supporter in the room. His lack of appropriate attire was not something I want to dwell on but nevertheless he did cheer appropriately. I dared not look in Mel’s direction.

This was a difficult game for the Wallybees to win being at Eden Park and with the NZ public expecting a much improved performance from our beloved MABs. The amazing thing is that the Wallybee supporters believed they really were going to win this and by a big margin! Beggars belief.

I have the match saved on the Foxtel IQ box but Melsy will not allow me to watch it with her around so I am still trying to find a time to watch it and enjoy the feeling once more.

All Blacks vs. Meat Eaters Prediction

My prediction for tomorrow night’s game is that, like the Wallybees, the Yarpies have underestimated this AB team and so it is going to be a close win to the All Blacks – no mean feat considering the location! Late Mail from the meat eating country is that they are going to thrash us…..bring it on.

SPECIAL NOTE TO ALL BLACK OUTER BACKS: When Habana stands at 45 degrees to our backline and has his arms stretched outwards and he does that little jumping up and down on the spot action, it means he’s getting ready to intercept.

WHAT NOT TO DO: Pass it to him

WHAT TO DO: Sell a huge dummy; take the tackle, pass back on the inside…do anything but do not pass to your winger! If you do, Habana will get yet another one of his trade mark intercepts.

Swine Flu - View this Before Taking Your Shot

I note the government is releasing propaganda to stir up the mass immunisation debate so that we are nice and prepared for when they want to vaccinate us all for swine flu (pigs might fly when I'll take that shot!).

Check out this video from 1976. This has all been done before, how soon we forget!

Rugby Scoreboard used at Sydney Junior Championships

This weekend the U16 and U15 Sydney Junior Rugby Championship was played at TG Milner - Eastwood Rugby Club. The Rugby Scoreboard was used for the top field for all three days. Here's the photos - unfortunately the camera I am using isn't doing it justice. The scoreboard stopped all the time and score questions which the SJRU officials were very happy about.



Another thing I noticed is that people seem to trust the electronic scoreboard without question. Very interesting indeed and lucky I haven't found any significant bugs!